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Dark Chocolate Prancer
d3602f
>>894950
Because we don't know how long the other two have had it. Last time we checked, we had four minutes, and this fight has been going on for eight minutes. We may very well be in third place right now. And if another person gets more than four minutes, and we are in third place, guess who's going to lose their winning position first?
At least, that's what I first thought. Let's also look at it from a mathematical point of view, just because I like math. This does not necessarily help my argument, this is just to try to give everyone (and myself) an idea of the big picture. If three people have close to 4 minutes with the ball, and everyone else has 0, we can be sure that, even if we are in third place, we have 4 minutes before our position is in jeopardy. If we are still in third place at 4 minutes, but those in second and third have 15 minutes, and all below are still at 0, we still have 4 minutes of safety if a fourth person gets the ball. If we are in first place however, we will need 3 players to hold the ball for 4 minutes (minimum, some may hold onto it for longer before it's stolen), giving a safety period of 12 minutes. (8 for 2nd)
Now let's say that the top people are still at around 4 minutes, but everyone else has 2 minutes. If we are in third place, that gives us 2 minutes. If we're in first place, 6 minutes That halves our time before we're bumped out.
Looking from this perspective, there is actually quite the difference in safety between first and third place. Funny enough, this actually puts us at the mercy of everyone else in the top three. Although they cannot bump us out, if we were in first place, even if we are ahead of second and third place by something as small as 2 seconds each, if they pass us that can effectively HALVE our safety period. But, they will have to run into us first.
With all this in mind, if we head into a more logic centered viewpoint, we can divide our opponents into 3 groups, "us" "winners" "rivals" and "Obstacles". We will assume we're also a winner in this situation. Winners are anyone in the top 3. Rivals are those who are likely to bump out the lowest ranked winner, turning them into a rival, and may become a winner themselves. The obstacles are those who have, let's say less than half the time of the lowest ranked winner, the point is that they will probably lose the ball before they become a problem. The more rivals we have, the more people who can bump us out. If we are in the top 3 and have one rival, we have one person to be truly concerned about if they have the ball. If we have 3 rivals, we have 3 people who can surpass us if any of them holds onto the ball for long enough, and steal the ball before we can get it back. But, if we have 1 rival and 3 obstacles, if someone steals the ball, they are most likely to either be an obstacle or a winner, meaning we are probably safe. At that point, it may actually become advantageous to not go after the ball, but to stall our "rivals", making the ball cycle between those who cannot bump us out. We only need to keep them away, and the few people to focus on the better.
We also have a goal time. 3 winners, 45 minutes. As soon as we reach 15 minutes, victory shall be achieved. Then we can do what we want, whether we help someone who we think we can beat in the third round, or just study more demons.
I hope that makes sense, and doesn't just seem like I'm rambling. I find it funny just how much advantage we can gain just by having an idea on the time everyone has held the ball.
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